EUROPE TOMORROW

Of all the nations on earth it is probably the British who are the most avid readers of newspapers. So much so, you can now read a number of them in the English language every day on the internet, or you could have at least 10 of the national titles delivered to your home every day, along with several daily American publications. And, as we have kept up with the events taking place throughout the world, it must be with a sense of unease and concern that we try to put them all into perspective. It is true that many journalists writing for these various papers will at times overstate what is happening all over the planet, but at the same time, you can put things into perspective and see trends. Trends which should give us great cause for worry.

There are probably three main areas of concern. First there is the European Union, next there is the Middle East and then Russia with the Far East. I have focussed upon these three from the viewpoint of simply analysing reported news over the past years. No other areas give the same reason for concern as they do. For example, what other areas exist for which you feel we should have great concern? What other areas pose a threat to world stability? Let’s ask the questions. What about Scandinavia including Iceland and Greenland? How about the South American nations? Would you view Chile or Argentina as threats to world stability? Argentina did attack the Falkland Islands and may well do so again, but that is hardly a global threat! Then there is North America including Canada! America has had much the same attitude as Britain and that is a desire to stop other peoples slaughtering each other. And Canadians have long served as peace-keepers!

You may feel the continent of Africa comprises a world threat – my question then is, “How?” There’s one other I must not forget! Britain! This nation has tended to go to war in order to stop wars! And populations from being slaughtered by their own governments, or attacked by others. The second world war is a case in point. And when Britain basically did control the world it brought peace to the extent that today there is a period of roughly a hundred years known as the Pax Britannica! Britain stopped people slaughtering each other and taught the world to speak English so there could as far as possible be a world language. It is true that Britain didn’t altogether have altruistic reasons and there were occasions it took tough action, but at least the nation was somewhat of a benefit to the world at large. It even tried to teach the nations what it perceived as the Christian religion! Most of these efforts were not necessarily government policy, but the British carried these things through because that’s the way they are! It was Britain which led the way in making the bible freely available throughout the world through the British and Foreign Bible Society, this quickly augmented by the efforts of the American Bible Society.

Let’s take a brief look at the three areas of concern. First, consider the Middle East and here we must include The Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, the Yemen and Egypt. The record is not good. Since 1948 following the efforts of the new United Nations Organisation the Jews have met with nothing but hostility from the Arab nations. It was in that year that the Jews, homeless for centuries, were restored to the land which was originally theirs, with the exception of the West Bank which continued to be ruled by Jordan although rightfully belonging to the Jews. However, the Arab nations continued to fire across the borders, with Syria from the Golan Heights hurling shells at Israeli farms and settlements in the valley below. It was then in 1967 that Israel was attacked by the surrounding Arab nations including Egypt, without warning, other than bellicose speeches beforehand by Arab politicians. Israeli defeated each nation and duly took the West Bank and East Jerusalem back from Jordan who had illegally occupied these territories in 1948.

One question was left unanswered in 1967 – “will peace ever come to the region.” It has not and it will not until the return of Jesus Christ. My wife and I were actually scheduled, at that time, to move to Cyprus to be responsible for the affairs of the Church of God in the Middle East. We were packed and were due to fly out there within a couple of days, some boxes had already gone, when the news came of what was to be called the 6 day war. We never then did open an office in the Middle East! Since that time the region has known nothing but war and hostility, with threats being made to throw every Jew into the Mediterranean. Two of the nations, Israel and most likely Iran, are nuclear powers. In history there isn’t one weapon invented and developed which has never been used in war, including atomic weapons. War, total war, continues to hover over the area and will, at some point in the not too distant future, be launched yet again. The nations involved all occupy strategic positions threatening the eastern Mediterranean, the Suez canal and the Persian Gulf.
The second area is Russia and the Far East. By Far East realistically we should, from the political viewpoint, count China, Russia, India, Pakistan and the Koreas. Three of these nations are nuclear powers and India and North Korea may be as well. However, their main drive at present is economic. War can be waged in various ways, it doesn’t always have to be guns and bombs. The world though is being unbalanced economically by these nations, and especially China and India. Almost everything that is sold in the shops and stores of Britain and America today carries the label “Made in China” It almost becomes a game to find a product made somewhere else! The threat to the western world, mainly Britain and America, is as real and effective as a shooting war. With one action China could wreck America’s economy and may well do so given the situation.

Both nations are very involved in electronics and it is not beyond the realms of possibility that they could well have planted devices that could in moments wreck computer systems in both our nations. Most British people are aware of the deep involvement of India in the call centres that we constantly contact. And India and China are not exactly at “odds” with each other.

Regarding Russia, it is comparatively quiet but hasn’t gone away. It would certainly support China and India. When we look at the map we see they occupy a strategic position over the whole of the western Pacific and there isn’t one other nation with any real economic or military power in the area. The way is then wide open to the western United States. South America would be powerless to prevent an aggressive attack – especially if America’s economy had just been destroyed which, right now, it could be!

This brings us to a consideration of the third area. That of Europe. For centuries, in fact for at least 2,000 years wars of all kinds have rolled backwards and forwards across the acres of the continent of Europe. From the Visigoths of the years before Christ was born, the Holy Roman Empire, the Franks, the Hundred Years war, the Spanish wars, the Peninsula war and the two world wars there hasn’t been a time when there wasn’t a war in Europe. In an effort to resolve this and to actually learn the lessons from the past and recalling George Santayana who said “Those who cannot learn from history are doomed to repeat it” there have been successive agreements and treaties, all with the intention of learning from the past, and creating a European structure, which would tie the European continent together and thereby prevent any more wars.

So today we have the European Union with a parliament, a president, a common currency, European laws and a European flag. The flag being a circle of gold stars on a blue background. The circle represents the nations of Europe unified. The religious affiliation of Europe is mainly Catholic and it is interesting to note the verse in the bible, in the book of Revelation, chapter 12 and verse 1 which speaks of a woman in heaven with a crown of 12 stars on her head. The background of blue can represent the sky of heaven. In biblical definition a woman represents a church.

Today we have reached a “watershed” In European politics. Most people are familiar with the acronym PIIGS – this stands for 5 nations which are part of the euro monetary system, Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain. All five have virtually run their economies into the ground! As you may remember, Ireland almost became bankrupt. This is the point when it loses a positive credit rating. For nations this is when their currency is of such little value they can get no further loans. Ireland was saved by massive injections of cash at high interest rates from Britain and it still is heavily in debt. The Irish have not recovered and certainly have made little or no progress in getting their financial affairs in order. Indeed they are already begging for an interest rate reduction.

Spain has recently been very suspect in financial terms and unless they get their house in order any confidence that the markets have will be lost and Spain will face collapse. Portugal has also had to be assisted with an injection of 85 billion euros which included seven billion pounds from Britain. We, and others have already assisted Ireland with multiple billions of pounds. Now Greece is looking a complete economic collapse in the face. Already there are riots in the streets of Athens. If a collapse should happen and it was obvious that there was no chance of Greece, let alone Spain, Portugal and Ireland, repaying any of the huge loans given to them then, as one historian said, Europe will find itself in the greatest economic crisis since the 1930s. Greece has to repay loans of £72 billion between 2012 and 2014 – there is absolutely no way Greece can do this. Its only recourse is to hope for a rescue from other European nations. This could well trigger, as happened in the 1930s, a rise of the extreme right in those European nations which had maintained a fiscal responsibility.

It is quite possible that as the leading nation in Europe, Germany, would move forward and rapidly form a new structure involving those European nations which had maintained a financial responsibility along with those nations which agreed to a German monitoring of their financial affairs. Whatever happens we are close to seeing a new configuration of nations in Europe with all that that implies.
John Jewell